Aakash Gupta

PM changed in 3 major ways in 2023:

1. The PM as GM
2. PMs managing higher ratios of engineers
3. A compression of PM 'middle management' for ICs

All three of these trends were actually trending in the other direction for the prior decade of the tech bull market:

• PMs were focusing on input metrics
• Ratios of PM:Eng were skewing to less Eng
• We saw lots of Directors of Product and Group PMs

Here's what happened.

1. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗠 𝗮𝘀 𝗚𝗠

Input metrics are great for OKRs. Product teams can actually move them.

The problem is Goodhart's Law: as soon as something has a target, it ceases to be a good metric.

As a result, more and more product leaders had to take on output metrics, like a GM. 

2. 𝗣𝗠𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗿𝘀

Having a PM for just 2 engineers was a ZIRP phenomenon.

Now, PMs are being asked to lead the ship for even 10-15 engineers.

PMs in lesser ratios were viewed as "overly administrative." 

When times got tight, they were laid off.

3. 𝗔 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗣𝗠 '𝗺𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁' 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗜𝗖𝘀

As companies cut costs, middle managers were the first targets to go.

This was equally, if not more true, for PMs. 

Where there was a proliferation of PM leaders with 1-3 reports by 2021, 2023 saw a reversion to the mean.

𝗢𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲:

One area of PM did grow by leaps and bounds: 

AI PMs. 

With the breakthroughs this year, tons of big tech companies and startups hired AI PMs.

This looks like a new sub-species of PM that is hear to say - and be quite well-compensated.

𝗣𝗠 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗮 𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘆 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 - 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲:

• PMs took on more output metrics like revenue
• PMs started leading even bigger engineering teams
• PM leaders got closer to the work with less layers in between
• A new sub-specialty of PM was borne and grew rapidly